Abril 24, 2018

United States stocks retreat on China trade spat, jobs data

11 Abril 2018, 08:53 | Crisanna Felipe

China ready to defend its interests 'at any cost' in trade war after Donald Trump threatens extra tariffs on US$100bn of

China is not afraid of USA's trade war pledges rebuff

"Trump's second goal of stopping intellectual property theft by China, mostly through what he sees as enforced technology transfer, is not supported even by the companies which are trying to reduce the degree of technology transfer to which they have to agree in order to access the Chinese markets", Sioh said.

"The American agricultural sector is quite influential in the Congress", said Wang Yong, a professor of economics at Peking University, explaining why China has targeted farm products such as soybeans with possible retaliatory tariffs.

He gave no details of what measures Beijing might take.

Nevertheless, AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver contends there is little likelihood of a genuine trade war materialising. He said this was "in light of China's unfair retaliation" against the earlier US trade action. The United States has brought a number of WTO cases against China, prevailing in nearly all of them, and the Chinese government changed its policies as a result. He's also instructed his secretary of agriculture "to implement a plan to protect our farmers and agricultural interests".

China said it was considering a "fierce counter strike" if Trump moves forward with his proposals.

The problem with unilaterally imposing tariffs on imports from other countries, as President Trump has with respect to aluminum and steel, is that other countries invariably respond by slapping tariffs on products we export to them. Less than 24 hours later, China's Ministry of Commerce revealed a list of 106 imports from the US that will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, including soybeans and cars. Also on the list were American beef, whiskey, passenger vehicles and industrial chemicals.

On the flipside, China's imposition of $50 billion of tariffs on U.S products, while a large number, is a small figure compared to the overall value of the U.S.

A trade showdown won't necessarily fix the underlying complaint about intellectual property either.

The Trump administration's threats against China, including the two probes, don't lead to tangible action over the rest of 2017 as Trump shows restraint amid a budding relationship with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

But Li Yang, a senior economic adviser to the Chinese leadership and the head of the National Institute for Finance and Development, an official think tank, told the Boao Forum for Asia on Monday that China was unlikely to use financial means to tackle its trade disputes partly because Beijing had more tolerance for trade losses.

"This may be because of concerns about the exposure of the economy and the stock market to global trade and some of the potentially exposed industries, such as steel and autos".

China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do.

"Such measures would undoubtedly cause further harm to American workers, farmers, and businesses", he said in a statement. It sent $375 billion in goods to the USA last year, while the United States sent only $130 billion worth of products to China. Therefore, the USA ran a $797 billion global trade deficit.

The director of China's National Economic Research Institute, Fan Gang, said he was concerned that trade conflict between the USA and China "might cause Asia economic turmoil" as it would have an impact on China's supply chain throughout Asia.

"Today, globalisation which had become accepted, is being questioned by countries we never expected. but we must convert this challenge to opportunity", he said.

We want to limit this type of exposure in our own portfolios, and there are three ways to do this.... But he stressed that differences between the nations could be solved through negotiation.

China expresses "strong dissatisfaction" over the decision, adding that it "aggravates the global trade environment".

However, experts warn that 2018 could be a different story, calling a trade war between the two gargantuan economies increasingly likely.

Overall, the trade war shouldn't halt US trade negotiations with other countries.

"The Brazilian beans are likely going to go to China in the short run and the USA beans are available". It could meddle with USA supply chains by disrupting shipments from Chinese factories to American companies. "Then, hopefully, there will be discussions, and hopefully in just the next two months the Chinese will come seriously back to the table". The tariffs will raise prices to Chinese buyers and cut their purchases, which could cost American soybean growers $1.7 billion.

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