Febrero 21, 2018

Political Turmoil in Germany Hurts EUR — Forex

24 Noviembre 2017, 05:18 | Crisanna Felipe

Angela Merkel has few options left to govern Germany

Merkel's fourth term in doubt after German coalition talks collapse

Although there are as many ways for her to stay in power as to be forced out, and she says she's prepared for another election, a world without Merkel as chancellor has become a real possibility.

A top official of the pro-business FDP told broadcaster ntv her party would not rule out reviving the three-way coalition talks if Merkel's conservatives and the Greens offered a "completely new package" of proposals. At the same time, there have been demands from within Parliament for the Commons to have a bigger say on the final deal. "The next step would be a profound reshuffle of the entire cabinet", Ardaev stressed.

"On balance, we think that EUR-USD will probably remain more nervous and volatile than anticipated over the next few weeks", says Silvestre.

That humiliation was blamed on public perceptions that the Free Democrats were political opportunists and lapdogs of Merkel's conservatives - with no political principles of their own.

On a Europe-wide level, the breakdown of the talks "sets back Emmanuel Macron's hopes of persuading Germany to reform Eurozone priorities and structures", wrties Martin Kettle in The Guardian. The pair is now at 1.1753, up from the lows of 1.1732 and a safer distance from yesterday's trough of 1.1712.

You might imagine the departure of "mutti", as the Germans like to call their head of government, would "be bad for Europe, and for Germany itself", says Sean O'Grady in The Independent.

The final option - and the one preferred by both Merkel and Schulz - is new elections. It is also blamed for not taking on its responsibility to put the "nation first, and the party second" in times of crisis as Gerhard Schröder, the former chancellor, once said. But whose? One reason that Germany is in this fix is that, after twelve years with Merkel in charge, there is no other obvious leader with her national, let alone international, standing.

In September, Germany voted to form a new government, and Merkel was elected for a fourth term as chancellor.

Why did Jamaika fail? "Another option, a return to talks on a large coalition with the Social Democrats, cannot be excluded either".

But what about renewing the current CDU / SPD coalition?

Merkel's fourth term in doubt after German coalition talks collapse
Germany moves closer to snap election

The elections also brought a far-right party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) into Germany's parliament for the first time since the 1960s.

For his part, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier called upon the parties to try to form the government again. As political crises go, the one Merkel has brought upon her country isn't exactly a Weimar moment, or even a Trump-scale shock.

The euro struggled to regain ground lost to the pound, however, down 0.5pc to 89p in morning trading. Talks had gone on for more than four weeks after September's election returned a hung parliament.

Merkel in turn stressed on Monday that if it came to fresh elections, likely not before February, she would be willing to run again, dismissing speculation that her 12-year reign is coming to an end.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a meeting of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group at the Bundestag in Berlin, Germany, November 20, 2017.

And no, she wouldn't resign. When he took over as party chairman four years ago, Lindner vowed to erase that humiliation. And no one-not a new German leader, not Macron, not anyone else-would be able to change that. Her party seems to be behind her, for now.

She was sorry about Jamaika, she said. "After Merkel we will have a more inward-looking Germany", he says. "She always seemed unflappable, but now that image is wavering".

The third option is for new elections.

"The politics of Europe's most powerful economy - and until recently its main anchor of stability - has just entered a period of deep uncertainty", said Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.

Merkel smiled, and, though she described Macron's well wishes, she never gave the answer away-or her exact destination, after leaving Jamaica.

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