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13 Setiembre 2017, 10:43 | Dolorita Barahona
UK inflation nears 3
United Kingdom government bond futures extended losses by around 10 ticks after the data while 10-year gilt yields edged up to their highest since September 1 at 1.076 percent.
"These figures provide little reason to expect that the monetary policy committee's Gang of Two rate hikers will soon be joined by enough of the other seven members to give us a rise in bank rate".
Inflation had been expected to climb to 2.8% from the 2.6% level seen in both June and July, according to economists polled before the release, but just exceeded those expectations. The faster-than-expected rise in inflation has a bearing on the Reserve Bank of India, which is being nudged to lower interest rates in order to revive investment and growth that have gone sluggish in recent quarters. The last thing you'd imagine the Monetary Policy Committee would want to do is begin to hike rates as inflation caps and then begins to slow down.
At 3:02pm BST, the pound was up 0.73% versus the greenback, changing hands at $1.3259, having risen as high as $1.3271; the sort of levels it dropped to in February previous year, after former UK Prime Minister David Cameron set a date of 23 June for the European Union referendum in parliament. The retail inflation in August rose from 2.36% in July, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said. This matched May's level which was the joint highest since April 2012.
Vegetables prices grew 6.1 percent in August as compared with a decline of (-) 3.57 percent in July. There was also a marked upward impact from clothing prices.
Food and beverages during the month under review recorded a rise of 1.96 per cent over the same month a year ago. On month, output prices rose 0.4 percent from July, when it edged up by 0.1 percent. The momentum in core inflation also strengthened with the prices of 40 percent of items in the core basket edging up from the earlier month.
The increase was mainly driven by rising costs for clothing and travel, the ONS said.
Though no change is likely, a hotter-than-expected earnings figure, on top of the inflation data, would make for an interesting meeting. However, we believe this should be around the peak as long as sterling does not suffer further weakness.
The chart below illustrates the sharp rise in inflation following last year's Brexit vote. Additionally, oil prices remain relatively low.
Analysts were caught off guard by the highest rate of inflation since May, as United Kingdom consumer households feel the impact of a weaker pound and slow wage growth.
Sterling has gained almost 4 percent against the dollar in the last three weeks.
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