Febrero 20, 2018

Oil Prices Set To Rise as Supply-Demand Gap Closes Up

01 Setiembre 2017, 07:52 | Dolorita Barahona

Think Harvey doesn't affect you? Think again next time you pull up to the pump

Gasoline future prices jump in wake of tropical storm Harvey due to refinery disruptions

This sent cracks - the premium of the refined fuel over crude - higher in NY, while the storm also triggered a flurry of trans-Atlantic gasoline trading and disrupted exports of liquefied petroleum gas, causing prices to rise in Asia. As the U.S. attempts to attract foreign cargoes, the spike in USGC gasoline and distillate prices could continue to feed into Europe and even impact Asian prices in September. That's leading to an unusual situation in which unbranded gasoline is becoming more expensive than the fuel sold at stations affiliated with major oil companies.

Gas stations will eventually have to respond by jacking up prices on consumers, at least temporarily.

"The refinery shutdowns mean some backup of crude-oil supplies", he said. The average price in Texas rose 2 cents to $2.19 per gallon.

But the era of cheap gas likely isn't over - prices are expected to quickly go back down once Gulf Coast refineries go back online, Kloza said.

But it won't just be about the impact on the US, especially given that this is the first major hurricane to hit the Gulf region since the country became a exporter of crude oil. That gives the country a cushion when dealing with a disaster like Harvey. Those two have a capacity equal to 7.1 percent of Gulf Coast capacity and 3.7 percent of USA capacity.

The recovery from Harvey will mimic the storm's path from west to east. Flint Hill Resources' refinery in Corpus Christi, where Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, could begin to restart - a process that takes days - as early as Wednesday.

I don't think the traditional fundamentals are strong enough to change the trend to up so in order to continue the rally, something in the news has to happen to scare the shorts out of the market.

In other words, Harvey has disrupted about one-fifth of the country's total refining capability.

The storm, which lashed Louisiana with rain on Thursday, has pummelled the U.S. Gulf Coast, inundating Houston and the surrounding area under several feet of rain and forcing the closure of almost a quarter of U.S. refining capacity. The company earlier shut production at its Baytown, Texas, refinery, the nation's second largest.

The nation's largest oil refinery is waterlogged and shut down after Harvey ravaged Port Arthur, Texas. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote Wednesday that they expected about a tenth of what is now offline to stay shut for several months. The slump in commodity prices has swayed the fundamentals of the industry, leaving it susceptible to every unforeseen event that can impact the demand and supply factors of oil.

As of August 28, there were 22 oil-carrying vessels waiting off Texas Ports.

"Best case: the refinery should be up and operating again for the most part by the middle of September".

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