Enero 22, 2018

Oil prices surge on falling United States inventories

27 Julio 2017, 07:22 | Martinez Canez

Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil Briefing

Oil Prices Spike In Spite Of Bearish EIA Forecast, Brent Now $50pb

The bigger-than-expected drop crude and gasoline stockpiles comes after investor sentiment on oil turned positive, following Saudi Arabia's pledge to lower crude exports and supply disruptions in Nigeria.

USA crude stocks fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels in the July 21 week to 483.4 million, more than the expected decrease of 2.6 million barrels and 1.4 percent below the level a year ago, according to the weekly report by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. After rising by two million barrels a day in 2015 due to the sharp drop in prices, demand grew by only 1.6 mmb/d last year and is forecast to increase this year by only 1.3 mmb/d, down 100,000 b/d from the March projection.

Brent crude futures were up 62 cents, or 1.2%, to $50.82 USA a barrel late morning Wednesday.

Credit Suisse believes that OPEC which is run by Saudi Arabia will outspread the production cuts for the second time.

Between June and July, US imports from Saudi Arabia have decreased nearly twofold, by 450,000 bpd.

The policy notes that refining excess crude would bring value addition and allow the country to also earn more foreign exchange value, just as it will aid diversification of the economy. By deepening its own cuts, Saudi Arabia seems to want to lead by example, but the country's energy minister also had some harsh words for petrostates deemed to be getting a "free ride". This report details current and projected cargo flows - including Middle East exports to the US - along with a host of trends, from OPEC to Venezuela to China.

While the data has not been confirmed yet, there are still multiple ships sailing from the Kingdom to global destinations, with no "final destinations" listed.

"We're in a market where it takes four good data points to have a rally and only one to have it tank", said Dan Pickering, head of the asset management arm of Tudor, Pickering Holt & Co. If this is true, it will skew the readings.

"We have consistently improved our processes and performance over the decades since our founding, and we are eager to expand our offerings to meet our customers' needs as the USA energy market evolves".

On May 25 oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will assemble in Vienna for the 172nd Ordinary Meeting of the 57-year-old organization. For example, a major OPEC producer in South America, Ecuador has refused to comply with production cuts. Supply growth was further stimulated by the technical success of shale gas exploration and its application to tight oil resources throughout the U.S.

While oil storage levels remain high, more than 50 million barrels of oil have been drained from USA storage tanks since the end of March.

Chevron Corp. will return to profit, while France's Total SA is expected to report a third consecutive quarter of higher year-on-year earnings.

Last month OPEC member nations started talking about the need to extend the supply-cut deal in other for the cuts to have a material effect on the supply and demand dynamics of oil. In January, the price of crude oil spiked to $58 per barrel, but prices have retreated sharply since then.

The rising demand for fuel in North America amidst the summer travel season and higher oil processing activity contributed to the decline in U.S. inventories, yet, oil price sustainability is still shaky as glut fears persist. Once again, increases in WTI crude oil production are having a negative effect on oil prices. The monitoring committee, known as JMMC said it would track Nigerian production patterns in the next weeks.

However, fresh news indicates that Nigeria has chose to join in on the new deal to cap its oil output. "Nevertheless, the country's crude and gasoline stockpiles remain above their five-year averages, which will cap price gains".

As can be seen in the chart above, net product exports were over 2.7 million barrels a day.

Port of Houston is now the largest oil-shipping hub on the US Gulf Coast, but when the LOOP commences its operations, it is going to divert a lot of US oil exports from Texas to Louisiana, and also dramatically increase the scale of US oil exports.

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